The Forecast · Africa 2013 → 2063
Our reality
What's actually happening on the continent, computed live from public data and benchmarked against the African Union's own self-reported scores.
Live data
Independent Agenda 2063 scoring
Computed from World Bank, Mo Ibrahim IIAG, WHO, and UNESCO data — not AU self-reports. Every number traces to a public source.
Seed dataset · 5d old · awaiting first live refresh8/22 indicators wired · 55 countries
Live13 of 50 years elapsed (2013 → 2063)
Agenda 2063 composite progress
Continental average across the seven aspirations, computed from public data.
Composite17%
vs. expected-9.4pts
Behind pace9.4 points below where 2063 trajectory expects us
Expected by 2026: 26%2013 baseline26% expected2063 target
Methodology disclosure
Composite covers 4 of 7 aspirations · 9 of 20 goals
22 indicators wired so far. AU goals not covered have no public data we can pull. Composite score is computed only from aspirations with at least one indicator — missing aspirations are excluded, not assumed zero.
#1 Prosperous
6/7 goals23%
#2 Integrated
1/3 goals32%
#3 Good Governance
1/2 goals1%
#4 Peaceful
0/3 goals—
#5 Cultural Identity
0/1 goals—
#6 People-driven
1/2 goals10%
#7 Global Partner
0/2 goals—
Our score vs AU's self-reported score
AU's biennial Continental Report (Feb 2022) scored each aspiration from member state self-submissions. We compute the same scores independently from public data. Divergence is the story.
| Aspiration | Our score | AU 2021 | AU 2019 | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
#1Prosperous Africa | 23% | 37% | 29% | -14 pts |
#2Integrated Africa | 32% | 84% | 44% | -52 pts |
#3Good Governance | 1% | 42% | 16% | -41 pts |
#4Peaceful Africa | no data | 63% | 48% | |
#5Cultural Identity | no data | 45% | 12% | |
#6People-driven | 10% | 67% | 38% | -57 pts |
#7Global Partner | no data | 58% | 26% | |
| Overall composite | 17% | 57% |
AU methodology aggregates self-reported member state submissions and is not directly comparable (different indicator weights). Source: Second Continental Report on Agenda 2063 Implementation (Feb 2022) · 38/55 countries reported.
Indicator detail
8 with live country-level data · hover any tile to see the countryAccess to electricityGoal 1
Share of population with access to electricity.
58.3%
pop-weighted · 2022
Toward 2063 target (100.0%):33%
DZA
EGY
LBY
MAR
SDN
TUN
ESH
BEN
BFA
CPV
CIV
GMB
GHA
GIN
GNB
LBR
MLI
MRT
NER
NGA
SEN
SLE
TGO
BDI
COM
DJI
ERI
ETH
KEN
MDG
MUS
RWA
SYC
SOM
SSD
TZA
UGA
AGO
CMR
CAF
TCD
COG
COD
GNQ
GAB
STP
BWA
SWZ
LSO
MWI
MOZ
NAM
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
worse 8.4100.0 betterno data
Best ↑
Egypt100.0%
Morocco100.0%
Tunisia100.0%
Worst ↓
South Sudan8.4%
Burundi11.1%
Chad11.8%
By region:North:88.7%(6)East:57.8%(14)West:53.3%(15)Central:50.8%(9)Southern:55.4%(9)
World Bank· EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS53/55 reporting
Adult literacy rateGoal 2
Share of population aged 15+ who can read and write a short simple statement.
67.2%
pop-weighted · 2022
Toward 2063 target (99.0%):18%
DZA
EGY
LBY
MAR
SDN
TUN
ESH
BEN
BFA
CPV
CIV
GMB
GHA
GIN
GNB
LBR
MLI
MRT
NER
NGA
SEN
SLE
TGO
BDI
COM
DJI
ERI
ETH
KEN
MDG
MUS
RWA
SYC
SOM
SSD
TZA
UGA
AGO
CMR
CAF
TCD
COG
COD
GNQ
GAB
STP
BWA
SWZ
LSO
MWI
MOZ
NAM
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
worse 26.895.9 betterno data
Best ↑
Seychelles95.9%
Equatorial Guinea95.3%
São Tomé and Príncipe93.4%
Worst ↓
Chad26.8%
Mali30.8%
Guinea32.0%
By region:North:77.2%(6)East:66.6%(13)West:54.4%(15)Central:71.4%(9)Southern:81.3%(9)
World Bank· SE.ADT.LITR.ZS52/55 reporting
Sourced from UNESCO UIS via World Bank. Survey-based, gappy years for many countries.
Life expectancy at birthGoal 3
Average number of years a newborn would live under current mortality patterns.
62.3 yrs
pop-weighted · 2022
Toward 2063 target (75.0 yrs):16%
DZA
EGY
LBY
MAR
SDN
TUN
ESH
BEN
BFA
CPV
CIV
GMB
GHA
GIN
GNB
LBR
MLI
MRT
NER
NGA
SEN
SLE
TGO
BDI
COM
DJI
ERI
ETH
KEN
MDG
MUS
RWA
SYC
SOM
SSD
TZA
UGA
AGO
CMR
CAF
TCD
COG
COD
GNQ
GAB
STP
BWA
SWZ
LSO
MWI
MOZ
NAM
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
worse 52.977.1 betterno data
Best ↑
Algeria77.1 yrs
Tunisia76.7 yrs
Morocco75.0 yrs
Worst ↓
Chad52.9 yrs
Lesotho53.0 yrs
Nigeria53.6 yrs
By region:North:72.7 yrs(6)East:64.0 yrs(14)West:62.1 yrs(15)Central:60.6 yrs(9)Southern:59.4 yrs(9)
World Bank· SP.DYN.LE00.IN53/55 reporting
Under-5 mortality rateGoal 3
Deaths of children under 5 per 1,000 live births.
61.4/1k
pop-weighted · 2022
simple mean: 55.9/1k
Toward 2063 target (25.0/1k):38%
DZA
EGY
LBY
MAR
SDN
TUN
ESH
BEN
BFA
CPV
CIV
GMB
GHA
GIN
GNB
LBR
MLI
MRT
NER
NGA
SEN
SLE
TGO
BDI
COM
DJI
ERI
ETH
KEN
MDG
MUS
RWA
SYC
SOM
SSD
TZA
UGA
AGO
CMR
CAF
TCD
COG
COD
GNQ
GAB
STP
BWA
SWZ
LSO
MWI
MOZ
NAM
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
better 10.4110.1 worseno data
Best ↓
Libya10.4/1k
São Tomé and Príncipe13.1/1k
Seychelles13.4/1k
Worst ↑
Niger110.1/1k
Somalia109.8/1k
Nigeria107.2/1k
By region:North:22.3/1k(6)East:51.3/1k(13)West:71.8/1k(15)Central:65.3/1k(9)Southern:49.1/1k(9)
World Bank· SH.DYN.MORT52/55 reporting
GDP per capita (current US$)Goal 4
Gross domestic product divided by midyear population, current US$ (not PPP).
$2,019
pop-weighted · 2023
simple mean: $2,824
Toward 2063 target ($12,000):0%
DZA
EGY
LBY
MAR
SDN
TUN
ESH
BEN
BFA
CPV
CIV
GMB
GHA
GIN
GNB
LBR
MLI
MRT
NER
NGA
SEN
SLE
TGO
BDI
COM
DJI
ERI
ETH
KEN
MDG
MUS
RWA
SYC
SOM
SSD
TZA
UGA
AGO
CMR
CAF
TCD
COG
COD
GNQ
GAB
STP
BWA
SWZ
LSO
MWI
MOZ
NAM
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
worse 200.017879.0 betterno data
Best ↑
Seychelles$17,879
Mauritius$11,436
Gabon$8,821
Worst ↓
Burundi$200
South Sudan$482
Central African Republic$511
By region:North:$4,314(6)East:$3,104(14)West:$1,547(15)Central:$3,197(9)Southern:$3,151(9)
World Bank· NY.GDP.PCAP.CD53/55 reporting
Current US$ (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), not PPP. For PPP figures see futures-data.ts which uses NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD.
Individuals using the internetGoal 10
Share of population using the internet.
39.5%
pop-weighted · 2022
simple mean: 42.1%
Toward 2063 target (95.0%):29%
DZA
EGY
LBY
MAR
SDN
TUN
ESH
BEN
BFA
CPV
CIV
GMB
GHA
GIN
GNB
LBR
MLI
MRT
NER
NGA
SEN
SLE
TGO
BDI
COM
DJI
ERI
ETH
KEN
MDG
MUS
RWA
SYC
SOM
SSD
TZA
UGA
AGO
CMR
CAF
TCD
COG
COD
GNQ
GAB
STP
BWA
SWZ
LSO
MWI
MOZ
NAM
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
worse 8.088.1 betterno data
Best ↑
Morocco88.1%
Seychelles87.6%
Botswana80.0%
Worst ↓
South Sudan8.0%
Central African Republic10.6%
Burundi11.0%
By region:North:64.5%(6)East:35.4%(13)West:39.0%(15)Central:36.3%(9)Southern:47.7%(9)
World Bank· IT.NET.USER.ZS52/55 reporting
Women in national parliamentGoal 17
Share of seats held by women in lower or single house of parliament.
24.3%
pop-weighted · 2024
Toward 2063 target (50.0%):8%
DZA
EGY
LBY
MAR
SDN
TUN
ESH
BEN
BFA
CPV
CIV
GMB
GHA
GIN
GNB
LBR
MLI
MRT
NER
NGA
SEN
SLE
TGO
BDI
COM
DJI
ERI
ETH
KEN
MDG
MUS
RWA
SYC
SOM
SSD
TZA
UGA
AGO
CMR
CAF
TCD
COG
COD
GNQ
GAB
STP
BWA
SWZ
LSO
MWI
MOZ
NAM
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
worse 4.461.3 betterno data
Best ↑
Rwanda61.3%
South Africa45.6%
Senegal44.2%
Worst ↓
Nigeria4.4%
Algeria8.1%
Burkina Faso8.5%
By region:North:20.1%(6)East:30.2%(13)West:21.9%(15)Central:24.0%(9)Southern:26.3%(9)
World Bank· SG.GEN.PARL.ZS52/55 reporting
Mo Ibrahim Overall Governance scoreGoal 11
Composite governance index covering security & rule of law, participation & rights, economic opportunity, and human development. Independent (not AU-reported).
46.9
pop-weighted · 2023
Toward 2063 target (75.0):0%
DZA
EGY
LBY
MAR
SDN
TUN
ESH
BEN
BFA
CPV
CIV
GMB
GHA
GIN
GNB
LBR
MLI
MRT
NER
NGA
SEN
SLE
TGO
BDI
COM
DJI
ERI
ETH
KEN
MDG
MUS
RWA
SYC
SOM
SSD
TZA
UGA
AGO
CMR
CAF
TCD
COG
COD
GNQ
GAB
STP
BWA
SWZ
LSO
MWI
MOZ
NAM
ZAF
ZMB
ZWE
worse 21.073.0 betterno data
Best ↑
Mauritius73.0
Cabo Verde71.6
Seychelles71.2
Worst ↓
South Sudan21.0
Somalia21.6
Sudan26.6
By region:North:44.5(6)East:46.8(14)West:51.0(16)Central:41.5(9)Southern:54.2(9)
Mo Ibrahim IIAG· IIAG-Overall-Governance54/55 reporting
The most respected African governance index. AU's own 2021 score for Aspiration 3 was 42% — IIAG's continental average is in the high 40s and has barely moved in a decade.
14 indicators await first live ingestion
Defined in the registry but not yet populated. Next live run of
scripts/ingest/world-bank.ts picks these up.Extreme poverty rate ($2.15/day, 2017 PPP)Safely managed drinking waterLower secondary completion rateMaternal mortality ratioChild stunting prevalenceYouth unemployment rateManufacturing value added (% of GDP)Cereal yield (kg/hectare)Prevalence of undernourishmentCO₂ emissions per capitaForest area (% of land)Renewable energy share of total final consumptionMobile cellular subscriptions per 100 peopleFemale labour force participation
Methodology & sources
Data flow: Weekly GitHub Action pulls from the World Bank Indicators API (no auth, public domain) and Mo Ibrahim IIAG annual release. Future additions: WHO Global Health Observatory, UNESCO UIS, ACLED, Afrobarometer.
Scoring: Per indicator, progress = (current − 2013 baseline) / (2063 target − 2013 baseline), clamped 0-100%. Goal score = mean of indicators. Aspiration score = mean of goals. Overall = mean of 7 aspirations (unweighted, matching AU's published methodology).
Known gaps: Goal 8 (United Africa), Goal 9 (Continental Financial Institutions), Goal 16 (Cultural Renaissance) lack quantitative continental indicators in public data. AU's scores for these are political assessments, not measurements.
Independent verification: Click any source link to verify the underlying number on the original publisher's site. We do not hide our work.
The 7 Aspirations
Aspiration 1
Prosperous Africa
26%On Track
Electricity access58%↑35%
Secondary school completion rate52%↑22%
Adult literacy rate68%↑16%
Aspiration 2
Integrated Africa
32%On Track
Countries in AfCFTA47 countries↑85%
Infrastructure quality index35/100↑15%
Intra-African trade share16%↑11%
Aspiration 3
Good Governance
5%Behind
Mo Ibrahim Governance Index48.8/100↑7%
Corruption Perceptions Index33/100↑4%
Press freedom score36/100↑3%
Aspiration 4
Peaceful Africa
4%Behind
Countries in active armed conflict18 countries↑0%
AU-led peacekeeping operations5 operations↑0%
Homicide rate11/100k↓13%
Aspiration 5
Cultural Identity
20%At Risk
UNESCO intangible heritage listings89 listings↑28%
African language official status38%↑11%
Aspiration 6
People-driven
20%At Risk
Gender parity index (education)0.92↑38%
Women in parliament27%↑23%
Youth unemployment rate12.7%↓3%
Aspiration 7
Global Partner
2%Behind
Africa's share of global trade3%↑5%
African countries in G20-equivalent1 countries↓0%
Indicator Detail
A Prosperous Africa based on Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Development
Eradicating poverty, reducing inequality, and building shared prosperity through inclusive growth.
26%On Track
| Indicator | 2013 Baseline | Current | 2063 Target | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poverty Eradication | |||||
Poverty headcount (<$2.15/day) World Bank | 42% | 35% 2024 | 3% | 18% | At Risk |
Safe water access WHO/UNICEF JMP | 61% | 72% 2023 | 100% | 28% | On Track |
| Health & Longevity | |||||
Life expectancy at birth WHO Global Health Observatory | 60 yrs | 64 yrs 2024 | 75 yrs | 27% | On Track |
| Energy & Infrastructure | |||||
Electricity access IEA Africa Energy Outlook | 35% | 58% 2023 | 100% | 35% | On Track |
| Education & Skills | |||||
Secondary school completion rate UNESCO Institute for Statistics | 40% | 52% 2023 | 95% | 22% | On Track |
Adult literacy rate UNESCO Institute for Statistics | 62% | 68% 2023 | 99% | 16% | At Risk |
Trends & Projections: 2013–2063
Charts show the journey from the 2013 Agenda 2063 baseline to projected 2063 targets. 2013 baseline · 2063 target
Population Growth: 2013 to 2063
From 1.1B to a projected 3.1B by 2063. Africa's demographic dividend is the continent's greatest long-term asset — Agenda 2063 aims to harness it fully.
Chart sources & methodology
All charts above are built from public data. 2013 baseline values use the year Agenda 2063 was adopted; 2024–2025 are most recent observations; forward projections are linear-trend extrapolations except where Agenda 2063 targets are stated explicitly. Charts are illustrative — for forecasts with real simulation modelling see Our Paths.
Demographics: UN World Population Prospects 2024
Economy & Trade: World Bank Open Data · UNCTAD
Energy: IEA Africa Energy Outlook
Education: UNESCO Institute for Statistics
Health: WHO Global Health Observatory · UN IGME
Wellbeing: World Happiness Report · Afrobarometer
Agenda 2063 framework: African Union · AUDA-NEPAD Continental Reports
Forecasts & scenarios: ISS African Futures (IFs platform)
Data Sources & Methodology
Indicator baselines are set to 2013 (year Agenda 2063 was adopted by the African Union). Current values reflect the most recent available data (2023–2025). Targets are drawn from the AU's Agenda 2063 First Ten-Year Implementation Plan and sector-specific frameworks. Progress scores use a linear interpolation formula: distance traveled from baseline toward target, expressed as a percentage. The "expected progress" benchmark assumes linear progress over 50 years (2013–2063), placing the 2026 expectation at ~26%.
Sources: African Union Commission, World Bank Development Indicators, WHO Global Health Observatory, UNESCO Institute for Statistics, IEA Africa Energy Outlook, UNCTAD, ILO, Mo Ibrahim Foundation, Transparency International, ACLED/SIPRI, WTO, Inter-Parliamentary Union, Reporters Without Borders, UNICEF, UNFPA.
Sources: African Union Commission, World Bank Development Indicators, WHO Global Health Observatory, UNESCO Institute for Statistics, IEA Africa Energy Outlook, UNCTAD, ILO, Mo Ibrahim Foundation, Transparency International, ACLED/SIPRI, WTO, Inter-Parliamentary Union, Reporters Without Borders, UNICEF, UNFPA.