Our Paths
By 2043 — when the African Union's third Ten-Year Implementation Plan ends — the continent will be one of three things, depending on what we do now.
Sectoral futures
For each indicator: today's value, the three 2043 scenarios, and where the numbers come from.
Economy
3 indicatorsWhy might Failure happen? (methodology)
1980s-1995 'lost decade' precedent: SAP era + commodity collapse contracted GDP per capita 15-20% across most of SSA. A failure scenario combines that pattern with climate shocks and conflict expansion.
Why might Failure happen? (methodology)
Africa's GDP per capita declined in real terms across 1980-1995. A 15% real decline from 2023 represents a comparable lost decade.
Why might Failure happen? (methodology)
If population growth continues at 2.2%/yr while GDP contracts (lost decade pattern), absolute poverty rises. Returning to ~38% would put Africa near 1990s levels in headcount.
Demographics
2 indicatorsWhy might Failure happen? (methodology)
In the failure scenario education investment collapses; female schooling stalls; fertility transition slows. Africa stays younger and faster-growing than the medium UN variant.
Why might Failure happen? (methodology)
Failure case: rapid urbanisation continues but with collapsed service delivery, producing megaslums (Lagos, Kinshasa, Khartoum) rather than productive cities.
Health
2 indicatorsWhy might Failure happen? (methodology)
Resurgent communicable disease + collapsing primary care + conflict-driven mortality. Comparable to Zimbabwe's 2000-2008 decline (life expectancy fell 13 years).
Why might Failure happen? (methodology)
Pandemic preparedness collapse + vaccine supply chain failure + climate-driven malnutrition could reverse 20 years of gains.
Education
1 indicatorsWhy might Failure happen? (methodology)
Collapse of public schooling under conflict + austerity. CAR, Mali, Sudan have shown this pattern: average schooling has stalled or reversed over 2010s.
Agriculture & food
2 indicatorsWhy might Failure happen? (methodology)
Climate stress (Sahel drying, southern droughts) + collapsed extension services + soil depletion. Yields are already below 1990 levels in some Sahel countries.
Why might Failure happen? (methodology)
Domestic ag collapses + population grows + climate hits. The Russian wheat shock of 2022-2023 previewed what a structural failure looks like for African import bills.
Industry & trade
2 indicatorsWhy might Failure happen? (methodology)
Africa is already 'pre-maturely deindustrialising' (Rodrik). Failure scenario continues the post-1970 trend toward services + commodities.
Why might Failure happen? (methodology)
AfCFTA implementation stalls due to non-tariff barriers + protectionism + ECOWAS fracture. Recent Sahel coups previewed regional integration unwinding.
Energy & digital
2 indicatorsWhy might Failure happen? (methodology)
If grid investment doesn't keep pace with 2.2%/yr population growth, electrification share falls. This is the historical pattern in DRC, Mozambique, Madagascar.
Why might Failure happen? (methodology)
Even in failure, mobile broadband expands somewhat — but rural coverage stalls and affordability barriers (data costs vs income) constrain access.
Governance
1 indicatorsWhy might Failure happen? (methodology)
Coup contagion in the Sahel + state capture in major economies. The 2020-2024 wave of coups (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, Guinea) is the failure pattern in motion.
Climate
1 indicatorsWhy might Failure happen? (methodology)
+3°C global pathway hits Africa hardest: Sahel collapses agriculturally; Horn of Africa drought-cycle intensifies; coastal Lagos/Dar es Salaam/Alexandria face inundation.
Current Path & Possible Africa values are drawn from ISS African Futures (Jakkie Cilliers, March 2026, IFs 8.34) — built on the Pardee Institute International Futures simulation model. The Combined Scenario assumes ambitious policy across 10 sectors (demographics, agriculture, health, education, manufacturing, AfCFTA, leapfrogging, financial flows, infrastructure, governance).
The Failure scenario is our own construction. It assumes documented historical worst-case patterns happen together: a 1980s-style lost decade (SAP era + commodity collapse), coup contagion in the Sahel, +3°C climate pathway, AfCFTA stagnation, and pandemic-preparedness collapse. Each component is anchored to a real precedent (Zimbabwe 2000-2008, Sahel 2020-2024, COVID-19 2020-2022).
Today's values are sourced from the World Bank, WHO Global Health Observatory, UNESCO UIS, FAOSTAT, UN World Population Prospects, IPCC AR6, and Mo Ibrahim IIAG. Every indicator card cites its specific source URL.
2043, not 2063? Because ISS publishes against the AU's 10-year implementation horizons. 2043 is the end of the third plan. We extend a few indicators to 2063 where defensible.